According to Bloomberg, rising weather-related risks are driving up prices in the global sugar market. On October 5, 2026, raw sugar futures on the New York exchange rose by as much as 4.4%, reaching their highest level since December 2024.

The key risks are linked to Brazil, where heavy rainfall is slowing sugarcane harvesting and processing, while the Brazilian real is strengthening against the U.S. dollar. In India, rainfall during the monsoon season has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, potentially pushing the sugar production forecast down to 30 million tons.

In addition, sugar production in Thailand is expected to decline by at least 17% due to drought, while in Europe, hot weather is expected to push production to its lowest level in a decade.

As a result, in the 2026/27 season, the likelihood of a global sugar market deficit has increased. In Uzbekistan, the annual sugar production capacity of local enterprises exceeds 1.2 million tons, which is sufficient to meet domestic demand. However, de facto, a significant share of the raw materials is supplied from foreign markets, meaning that changes in global prices and supply could also affect the domestic market.

Moreover, in January–September 2026, 598,000 tons of sugar worth $405 million were imported into Uzbekistan, indicating a significant dependence of the domestic market on external supplies.