“Assessing Price Stability and Future Trends of Poultry Meat Products in the Domestic Market Using Econometric Models”
A scientific article entitled “Assessing Price Stability and Future Trends of Poultry Meat Products in the Domestic Market Using Econometric Models”, prepared by Olimjon Sadulloevich Jumayev, Doctor of Economics and Director of the Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Research Center under the Competition Committee, was published in the journal Green Economy and Development.
The article assesses the price stability of poultry meat products in the domestic market and future trends through econometric approaches. As part of the study, a price forecast for the next three months was developed based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, and a comprehensive analysis of the competitive environment in the domestic market was carried out.
Key aspects highlighted in the study:
- domestic market production volume and supply dynamics;
- prices of poultry feed inputs (compound feed, soybean meal, oils, and vitamin supplements);
- imports of breeder parent chicks and concentration in the import market;
- price formation mechanisms in retail trade networks;
- global meat product prices, international logistics costs, exchange rates, and shocks in the food market.
The research findings substantiate, through econometric methods, the interrelationship of these factors and their impact on price stability. The study also demonstrates the significance of the ARIMA model in ensuring food security and emphasizes the need to integrate exogenous factors in future research.
This scientific work serves as a practical guide for government agencies in forecasting price dynamics, effectively regulating the market, and preventing crisis scenarios.
